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TODAY'S BAKE

Paper picks first: real, locked before game time, and tracked in public. Below them, an example of the subscriber board.

THE PROOFING SHELF

Paper picks · tracking, not yet a paid product

Real picks, locked and timestamped before kickoff, graded against the final score and the closing line. We're proofing the dough for 3–4 weeks before anyone pays. Paper record: 0-0-0, +0u · 5 pending. Full record

Last updated Oct 25, 10:54 AM MDT · checked Oct 25, 12:46 PM MDT · refreshes about every minute

NFLSun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers +3.5
+100 @ LowVig.ag
low confidence1uAnalyst + market

Best market price on the board: Packers +3.5 at even money (+100) while most books hang -108 to -115. No-vig fair price is ~50%, so the plus price is the whole case. Packers 4-2 vs Lions 3-2 entering the week. Injury data was limited at pick time (inactives not out).

Locked Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:54:32 UTC · consensus 3.5

Sources: The Odds API snapshot 2026-10-25 16:43 UTC (9 books); RotoWire NFL lineups (records)

NBASun, Oct 25, 7:10 PM ET

Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves +0.5
-107 @ BetRivers
low confidence1uAnalyst + market

Line shopping: consensus is Wolves -1 but one book offers Wolves +0.5 at -107, a 1.5-point edge on a near pick'em; top expected value on today's NBA board (~+1.5%). Injuries are minor (TOR Nate Bittle out, MIN Donte DiVincenzo out).

Locked Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:54:32 UTC · consensus -1

Sources: The Odds API snapshot 2026-10-25 16:43 UTC (9 books); NBA official injury report 10/25 10:00 AM ET

NBASun, Oct 25, 7:40 PM ET

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

Under 228.5
-110 @ FanDuel
low confidence1uAnalyst + market

Under 228.5 is a point above the 227.5 consensus. Detroit's C Jalen Duren is out and Ausar Thompson is questionable; Philly is on the second night of a back-to-back with Joel Embiid (36 min Saturday) a game-time decision and LeBron James on back management. Star availability is unknown at pick time, so this is low confidence.

Locked Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:54:32 UTC · consensus 227.5

Sources: The Odds API snapshot 2026-10-25 16:43 UTC (9 books); NBA official injury report 10/25 10:00 AM ET; Sports Mole / WhyNBA previews

NFLSun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks

Kansas City Chiefs +3
-109 @ LowVig.ag
low confidence1uAnalyst + market

Taking the key number +3 with an unbeaten (5-0) Chiefs team vs a 3-3 Seahawks side. Seattle has RB Zach Charbonnet and LBs Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas ruled out, with four more defenders questionable. KC is without WR Rashee Rice and CB L'Jarius Sneed is questionable. Market alone shows no edge (fair ~51% on KC +3), so this is a lean.

Locked Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:54:32 UTC · consensus 3

Sources: The Odds API snapshot 2026-10-25 16:43 UTC (9 books); chiefs.com Week 8 injury report; RotoWire NFL lineups (records)

NFLMon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Cowboys -4.5
-105 @ LowVig.ag
low confidence1uAnalyst + market

Eagles are projected to start QB Tanner McKee, Saquon Barkley is listed questionable, and WR DeVonta Smith and DE Nolan Smith Jr. sat last week. Line is a consistent -4.5 across books at a cheap -105. Both teams 2-4. Week 8 injury reports not yet filed, so confidence stays low.

Locked Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:54:32 UTC · consensus -4.5

Sources: The Odds API snapshot 2026-10-25 16:43 UTC (9 books); RotoWire NFL lineups; FantasyPros Week 7 inactives

What the subscriber board will look like

Example data
NFLSun 11:00 AM MT
Example data

Example Hawks @ Sample Bears

The pick
Sample Bears -3
Line
-3 (-110)
Confidence4/5

Home side's run defense lines up well against a run-heavy road offense.

  • Example: Bears allow 3.6 YPC (5th)
  • Example: 4-1 ATS in last 5 H2H
  • Example: line moved -2 → -3 despite 41% of tickets
Money vs. tickets
Money
63%
Tickets
41%
NBATonight 7:30 PM MT
Example data

Demo Suns @ Placeholder Nets

The pick
Over 228.5
Line
O 228.5 (-108)
Confidence3/5

Both teams top-10 in pace; neither plays a back-to-back.

  • Example: combined pace 101.8
  • Example: Over 7-3 in last 10 meetings
  • Example: 58% of money on Over
Money vs. tickets
Money
58%
Tickets
52%
MLBTonight 6:10 PM MT
Example data

Sample Sox @ Test Tigers

The pick
Test Tigers ML
Line
+115
Confidence3/5

Value on home dog with a starter who has handled this lineup.

  • Example: SP 2.41 ERA vs. this lineup
  • Example: reverse line move +130 → +115
Money vs. tickets
Money
55%
Tickets
34%
NHLTonight 8:00 PM MT
Example data
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NFLSun 2:25 PM MT
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NBATonight 8:00 PM MT
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NHLTomorrow 5:00 PM MT
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Example picks

Real data

LIVE MARKET LINES

Real sportsbook lines from The Odds API. Market info only, not picks or predictions.

Updated

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Falcons +2.5
49ers -2.5 -115 @ LowVig.ag
Falcons +2.5 +104 @ LowVig.ag
Total (consensus) 50
Over -107 @ LowVig.ag
Under -107 @ LowVig.ag
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Sun, Oct 25, 5:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Panthers -3
Buccaneers +3 -110 @ DraftKings
Panthers -3 +100 @ LowVig.ag
Total (consensus) 44.5
Over -110 @ DraftKings
Under -102 @ LowVig.ag
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Sun, Oct 25, 5:05 PM UTC · 1:05 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Ravens +3
Bengals -3 -105 @ FanDuel
Ravens +3 -102 @ LowVig.ag
Total (consensus) 46.5
Over -108 @ DraftKings
Under -108 @ BetMGM
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
Sun, Oct 25, 5:05 PM UTC · 1:05 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Titans +1.5
Browns -1.5 -110 @ DraftKings
Titans +1.5 -108 @ FanDuel
Total (consensus) 37
Over -107 @ LowVig.ag
Under -107 @ LowVig.ag
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
Sun, Oct 25, 5:05 PM UTC · 1:05 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Texans -10
Giants +10 -102 @ LowVig.ag
Texans -10 -105 @ BetMGM
Total (consensus) 42.5
Over -110 @ BetMGM
Under -102 @ LowVig.ag
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Sun, Oct 25, 5:05 PM UTC · 1:05 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Vikings -7
Colts +7 +101 @ LowVig.ag
Vikings -7 -107 @ BetRivers
Total (consensus) 41.5
Over -108 @ DraftKings
Under -105 @ BetUS
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Sun, Oct 25, 5:05 PM UTC · 1:05 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Jets -3.5
Dolphins +3.5 +100 @ DraftKings
Jets -3.5 -103 @ LowVig.ag
Total (consensus) 39.5
Over -102 @ DraftKings
Under -110 @ Bovada
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun, Oct 25, 8:05 PM UTC · 4:05 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Cardinals +4.5
Broncos -4.5 -104 @ LowVig.ag
Cardinals +4.5 -105 @ DraftKings
Total (consensus) 43.5
Over -105 @ LowVig.ag
Under -108 @ BetMGM
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Oct 25, 8:25 PM UTC · 4:25 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Lions -3.5
Packers +3.5 +100 @ LowVig.ag
Lions -3.5 -108 @ DraftKings
Total (consensus) 55.5
Over -108 @ BetMGM
Under -110 @ DraftKings
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders
Sun, Oct 25, 8:25 PM UTC · 4:25 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Raiders +3
Rams -3 -115 @ LowVig.ag
Raiders +3 +104 @ LowVig.ag
Total (consensus) 48.5
Over -105 @ FanDuel
Under -105 @ LowVig.ag
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon, Oct 26, 12:20 AM UTC · 8:20 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Seahawks -3
Chiefs +3 -109 @ LowVig.ag
Seahawks -3 +100 @ DraftKings
Total (consensus) 42.5
Over -107 @ LowVig.ag
Under -107 @ LowVig.ag
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Tue, Oct 27, 12:15 AM UTC · 8:15 PM ET · 9 books
Spread (consensus) Eagles +4.5
Cowboys -4.5 -105 @ LowVig.ag
Eagles +4.5 -105 @ FanDuel
Total (consensus) 44
Over -107 @ LowVig.ag
Under -107 @ LowVig.ag
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Fri, Oct 30, 12:15 AM UTC · 8:15 PM ET · 4 books
Spread (consensus) Packers -3
Panthers +3 -108 @ FanDuel
Packers -3 -109 @ BetRivers
Total (consensus) 46.75
Over -108 @ FanDuel
Under -112 @ FanDuel
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Cowboys -6.5
Cardinals +6.5 -110 @ DraftKings
Cowboys -6.5 -108 @ BetRivers
Total (consensus) 51.5
Over -110 @ DraftKings
Under -105 @ FanDuel
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Buccaneers -1.5
Falcons +1.5 -115 @ DraftKings
Buccaneers -1.5 -105 @ DraftKings
Total (consensus) 44.5
Over -110 @ DraftKings
Under -109 @ BetRivers
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Bills -3
Ravens +3 +100 @ DraftKings
Bills -3 -115 @ FanDuel
Total (consensus) 53.5
Over -110 @ FanDuel
Under -110 @ FanDuel
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Bengals -10.5
Titans +10.5 -114 @ BetRivers
Bengals -10.5 -104 @ FanDuel
Total (consensus) 46
Over -109 @ BetRivers
Under -112 @ BetRivers
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Lions -3
Vikings +3 -107 @ BetRivers
Lions -3 -112 @ FanDuel
Total (consensus) 47
Over -114 @ BetRivers
Under -107 @ BetRivers
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Jaguars -7.5
Colts +7.5 -110 @ DraftKings
Jaguars -7.5 -104 @ FanDuel
Total (consensus) 47.5
Over -110 @ DraftKings
Under -110 @ DraftKings
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
Sun, Nov 1, 6:00 PM UTC · 1:00 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Jets -1
Raiders +1 -110 @ BetRivers
Jets -1 -110 @ BetRivers
Total (consensus) 43.5
Over -110 @ FanDuel
Under -108 @ BetRivers
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
Sun, Nov 1, 9:05 PM UTC · 4:05 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Rams -7
Chargers +7 -110 @ FanDuel
Rams -7 -105 @ DraftKings
Total (consensus) 45.5
Over -105 @ FanDuel
Under -110 @ DraftKings
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Sun, Nov 1, 9:25 PM UTC · 4:25 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Broncos +1.5
Chiefs -1.5 -110 @ DraftKings
Broncos +1.5 -106 @ FanDuel
Total (consensus) 42.5
Over -110 @ DraftKings
Under -105 @ FanDuel
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Sun, Nov 1, 9:25 PM UTC · 4:25 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Dolphins +8.5
Patriots -8.5 -104 @ FanDuel
Dolphins +8.5 -110 @ DraftKings
Total (consensus) 44
Over -110 @ BetRivers
Under -110 @ BetRivers
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Mon, Nov 2, 1:20 AM UTC · 8:20 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Commanders -3.5
Eagles +3.5 -102 @ FanDuel
Commanders -3.5 -110 @ DraftKings
Total (consensus) 40.5
Over -105 @ FanDuel
Under -114 @ BetRivers
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Tue, Nov 3, 1:20 AM UTC · 8:20 PM ET · 3 books
Spread (consensus) Seahawks -3
Bears +3 -110 @ DraftKings
Seahawks -3 -104 @ BetRivers
Total (consensus) 46.5
Over -112 @ BetRivers
Under -105 @ DraftKings

Consensus = median line across US books. Best price = highest payout on the consensus number. Lines move; confirm at your book.

For entertainment and informational purposes only. Sourdough Sports sells analysis, not wagers — we do not accept bets. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes; no pick is a sure thing. You must be 21+ (or the legal age in your jurisdiction) to bet. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.